Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t
上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.
On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.
We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦
year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.
We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦
uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.
Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦
According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.
上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n
ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h
as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.
We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t
here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信
Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.
The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信
r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc
ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.
That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d
ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信
rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the
Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.
in 上海千花坊女神会所the region, and local authorities must create an enabling environment for starting and doing business in the Northeast, he said.
The three provinces in the Northeast－Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang－saw GDP growt
h of 5.7, 4.5 and 4.7 percent last year, which is below the national average of 6.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the three provinces have also seen a continuous outflow of working-age citizens. In Liaoning, the number of peo
ple aged between 16 and 59 was down by 492,000 last year, according to the Liaoning Bureau of Statistics.he United Sta
tes’ trade deficit with China is not a matter of simple, objective truth. It has been brought on by actions of the US i
tself — a combination of export controls, market restrictions, competition, trade policies, currency dominance and other f
actors — officials and experts said in response to a report from the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday.
hina Petrole上海会所品茶微信um and Chemical Corp, the world’s larg
est refiner by volume, has agreed to establish a joint venture with Russia’s Novatek and Gazp
rombank to market natural and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China, Sinopec said on Thursday.
The agreement, which aims to sell LNG produced by Novatek in the Arctic, was signed fo
llowing talks in Moscow between Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President, Xi Jinping.
The agreement will be of considerable economic and social benefit an
d will further diversify China’s natural gas imports, while meeting ever-increasing ga
s demand in the country, said Dai Houliang, China Petrochemical Corp president.
success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h
as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.
Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he
released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.
Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th
at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri
tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.
he United States, may lead to weaker business confidence and slower
global trade growth, which is expected to weigh on investment and exports in 2020. But in the n
ear term, as China shows positive surprise in GDP growth in the first quarter, and the macroeconomic policies hav
e taken effects on stabilizing the growth, the GDP growth rate is likely to stay at 6.2 percent, the report said.
“In response to the growth moderation and less favorable external conditions, the government in
troduced a fiscal stimulus emphasizing tax incentives,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Country director for China.
“While the central government has fiscal space to further increase spending, if necessary, the additional stimulus should be ap
propriately funded either directly at the central level or through additional fiscal transfers to the provinces. Highe
At least four deaths have been blamed on crowding during the climbs, Agence France-Presse reported.
People should be well prepared to handle Qomolangma’s traffic jams which are common phenomena along climbing paths, said alpinists who had reached the summit.
“Although the news about the jam on Qomolangma this year has gone viral, people should understand that it happens every year during the brief cl
imbing window. Knowing what to do when climbers jam the narrow paths should be incl
uded in their training well in advance,” said Ma Liyamu, who reached the top of Qomolangma, the world’s ta
llest mountain at 8,848 meters, on May 22 and was also held up by the crowds on her descent.
She is the leader of a mountaineering team of three Chinese women w
ho scaled Qomolangma. They launched their expedition from Nepal, which issued 381 cli
mbing permits for the season that concludes this week. Nepal’s permits this season cost $11,000 each.